Our model gives Leones de Rosario a 38% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Atlas.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Leones de Rosario have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Atlas have done so in 0 of their last 4.