Our model gives Lechia Gdańsk a 45% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Stal Mielec.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lechia Gdańsk have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Stal Mielec have done so in 2 of their last 3.