Our model gives Lech Poznań a 56% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Thun.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lech Poznań have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Thun have done so in 6 of their last 6.