Our model gives Lech Poznań a 63% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Radomiak Radom.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lech Poznań have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Radomiak Radom have done so in 3 of their last 3.