Our model gives Leatherhead a 43% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Welling United.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Leatherhead have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Welling United have done so in 2 of their last 3.