Our model gives León W a 46% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Juárez W.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, León W have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Juárez W have done so in 0 of their last 2.