Our model gives Lautaro de Buin a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Naval.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lautaro de Buin have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Naval have done so in 3 of their last 3.