Our model gives Lausanne Sport a 27% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 49% for Lugano.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lausanne Sport have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Lugano have done so in 5 of their last 6.