Our model gives Lanzhou Longyuan a 42% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 24% for Wenzhou.

Both teams are projected to score in 38% of simulations, against 62% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lanzhou Longyuan have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6, and Wenzhou have done so in 0 of their last 4.