Our model gives Lancaster City a 65% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 17% for Tadcaster Albion.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lancaster City have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Tadcaster Albion have done so in 0 of their last 1.