Our model gives Lanús a 50% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 19% for San Lorenzo.

Both teams are projected to score in 33% of simulations, against 67% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 33% likelihood against 67% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lanús have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and San Lorenzo have done so in 0 of their last 1.