Our model gives Lahti a 66% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Jaro.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Lahti have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Jaro have done so in 1 of their last 2.