Our model gives La Serena a 53% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Cobresal.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, La Serena have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Cobresal have done so in 2 of their last 3.