Our model gives Kuressaare a 35% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 40% for Vaprus.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kuressaare have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Vaprus have done so in 1 of their last 2.