Our model gives Krasnodar a 59% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Rostov.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Krasnodar have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Rostov have done so in 3 of their last 5.