Our model gives Krasnodar a 62% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Fakel.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Krasnodar have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Fakel have done so in 2 of their last 5.