Our model gives Kontu a 28% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 52% for Valtti.

Both teams are projected to score in 69% of simulations, against 31% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 73% likelihood against 27% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kontu have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Valtti have done so in 2 of their last 3.