Our model gives Kingborough Lions a 82% chance to win this one, against 9% for a draw and 9% for Launceston United.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 86% likelihood against 14% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kingborough Lions have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Launceston United have done so in 2 of their last 3.