Our model gives Kimberley Mar del Plata a 46% chance to win this one, against 35% for a draw and 19% for Alvarado.

Both teams are projected to score in 34% of simulations, against 66% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 27% likelihood against 73% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kimberley Mar del Plata have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Alvarado have done so in 0 of their last 2.