Our model gives Khan Tengri a 60% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Arys.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Khan Tengri have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Arys have done so in 1 of their last 2.