Our model gives Kelty Hearts a 61% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Dumbarton.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kelty Hearts have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Dumbarton have done so in 1 of their last 4.