Our model gives Kauno Žalgiris a 52% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Džiugas Telšiai.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kauno Žalgiris have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Džiugas Telšiai have done so in 1 of their last 3.