Our model gives Kattaqurgon a 60% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Pakhtakor II.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kattaqurgon have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Pakhtakor II have done so in 3 of their last 4.