Our model gives Kaspiy a 32% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 43% for Tobol.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kaspiy have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Tobol have done so in 2 of their last 5.