Our model gives Kashima Antlers a 60% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Nagoya Grampus.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kashima Antlers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Nagoya Grampus have done so in 1 of their last 2.