Our model gives Kashima Antlers a 77% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Atletico.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kashima Antlers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2.