Our model gives Karpaty a 21% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 52% for Shakhtar Donetsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Karpaty have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Shakhtar Donetsk have done so in 1 of their last 2.