Our model gives Karpaty a 37% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Bukovyna Chernivtsi.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Karpaty have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Bukovyna Chernivtsi have done so in 1 of their last 3.