Our model gives Karlskrona a 59% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Oskarshamns AIK.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Karlskrona have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Oskarshamns AIK have done so in 2 of their last 2.