Our model gives Kamatamare Sanuki a 16% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 60% for Kagoshima United.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kamatamare Sanuki have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Kagoshima United have done so in 0 of their last 1.