Our model gives Kaluga a 70% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Iskra Smolensk.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kaluga have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Iskra Smolensk have done so in 1 of their last 1.