Our model gives Kalisz a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Noteć Czarnków.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kalisz have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Noteć Czarnków have done so in 2 of their last 3.