Our model gives Kairat a 64% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Ulytau.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Kairat have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Ulytau have done so in 2 of their last 4.