Our model gives KA Akureyri a 50% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 28% for Thór.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, KA Akureyri have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Thór have done so in 0 of their last 3.