Our model gives Juárez a 30% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 43% for Tigres UANL.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Juárez have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Tigres UANL have done so in 2 of their last 2.