Our model gives Jong Ajax a 31% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 43% for Helmond Sport.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jong Ajax have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Helmond Sport have done so in 1 of their last 2.