Our model gives Jiangxi Lushan a 38% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Xiamen Feilu.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jiangxi Lushan have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Xiamen Feilu have done so in 3 of their last 4.