Our model gives Jiangxi Dingnan United a 44% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Suzhou Dongwu.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jiangxi Dingnan United have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Suzhou Dongwu have done so in 1 of their last 3.