Our model gives Jezero a 19% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 52% for Mornar.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jezero have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Mornar have done so in 0 of their last 2.