Our model gives Jarosław a 67% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 17% for Star Starachowice.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 76% likelihood against 24% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jarosław have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Star Starachowice have done so in 2 of their last 3.