Our model gives Jaiyq a 35% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 41% for Taraz.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Jaiyq have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Taraz have done so in 1 of their last 3.