Our model gives Júbilo Iwata a 35% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 39% for Tegevajaro Miyazaki.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Júbilo Iwata have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Tegevajaro Miyazaki have done so in 0 of their last 2.