Our model gives Iztapa a 72% chance to win this one, against 17% for a draw and 11% for Coatepeque.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Iztapa have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Coatepeque have done so in 1 of their last 3.