Our model gives Iwaki a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Oita Trinita.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Iwaki have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Oita Trinita have done so in 0 of their last 2.