Our model gives Itabirito U20 a 25% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 52% for América Mineiro U20.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Itabirito U20 have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and América Mineiro U20 have done so in 1 of their last 2.