Our model gives Istra 1961 a 40% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Gorica.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Istra 1961 have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Gorica have done so in 1 of their last 2.