Our model gives Isloch a 64% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 39% of simulations, against 61% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Isloch have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have done so in 3 of their last 3.