Our model gives Island Bay United a 44% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 37% for Upper Hutt City.

Both teams are projected to score in 70% of simulations, against 30% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Island Bay United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Upper Hutt City have done so in 2 of their last 2.