Our model gives Indy Eleven a 47% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Oakland Roots.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Indy Eleven have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Oakland Roots have done so in 1 of their last 4.