Our model gives Independiente Rivadavia a 44% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Atlético Tucumán.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Independiente Rivadavia have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Atlético Tucumán have done so in 2 of their last 5.